Portland existing home prices up again in July - Case Shiller

The July 2009 Case Shiller data was released today and July's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 13.9% from July 2008 at 150.06. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size) This is a significant improvement from the 16.3% decline in May.

The monthly change was up 1.1% from June. This is the third month in a row that the index has increased, which indicates that the $8k tax credit along with the usual summer seasonality might be helping to boost demand and therefore prices. The low interest rates aren't hurting either.

The median Portland home price is now down 19.5% from the peak in July 2007.

I previously predicted that prices would continue to decline through 2009, and I appear to be wrong. But I do believe that prices will stabilize or fall again if the tax credit expires in November given the high unemployment in Oregon and soft economy. Only then will we know if May was the bottom of the market, or if prices will decline again. I certainly don't believe we'll return to growth much higher than 0-4% anytime soon.

HOW PORTLAND PRICES COMPARE TO OTHER MARKETS

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland is doing a little better than Seattle, but note how the price declines in the Bay Area are really starting to slow. The bottom has definitely passed there, and we might have hit bottom here as well. The negative price growth appears to have bottomed out in the Bay Area, but it's too early to tell if prices won't slide again once the tax credit expires and the next wave of foreclosures hit. Thanks to readers for catching that slip.
The above chart shows how Portland is faring compared to other cities. Our maximum price decline is still below average, but will we remain below average?

CURRENT PRICES VS HISTORIC AVERAGE

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation.

FULL PORTLAND PRICE HISTORY


This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008.

Thanks for your patience during the gap in posting. The family and I were off on a 3 week vacation to Europe, and I'll share a few "fixer" photos of houses if Europe once we settle in again.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Data presented in the Case Shiller spreadsheets are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.

Price recovery, or dead cat bounce? - May Case Shiller

The May 2009 Case Shiller data was released yesterday and May's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 16.3% from May 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was up 0.1% from April. Before everybody gets too giddy about the recovery just remember that this is likely just seasonality as prices also rose slightly in May 2008 before continuing to fall. If we see price increases for 3 months in a row then we can start talking about a recovery.

The median Portland home price is now down 21.2% from the peak in July 2007,

At this point if I would predict prices will continue to decline through 2009 and well into 2010.

A reader asked me recently why I focus so much on the price changes, rather than the actual changes. Because by focusing on the change, and the rate of change in prices you get an early indication into future prices. So while prices in other markets may still be declining, the change in price is also declining signaling a bottom to the declines.

HOW PORTLAND PRICES COMPARE TO OTHER MARKETS

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are still tracking each other very closely. Lase month Seattle saw a slight uptick in prices while Portland prices continued to decline. This month the trend reversed with Seattle prices continuing to slide and Portland prices rising slightly.

While the price declines for the overall market appears to have hit bottom, Portland and Seattle have slowed but not reversed. The price declines in the SF Bay Area also seem to have bottomed out and are now slowing. Prices have ticked up for the past few months but it remains to be seen if they will continue or slide again this winter.


The above chart is a recent addition. It shows how Portland is faring compared to other cities. Our maximum price decline is still below average, but as we all know Portland was late to this party, a party most homeowners didn't want an invitation to. As the average improves I predict Portland will be worse than average shortly

CURRENT PRICES VS HISTORIC AVERAGE

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation. But it's likely that we'll over correct before getting there.

FULL PORTLAND PRICE HISTORY


This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

This chart also shows the full available price history for Portland. I'm working to convert it to a log chart which will show the changes better.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Data presented in the Case Shiller spreadsheets are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 15.3% in March - Case Shiller

The March Case Shiller data was released today and March's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 15.3% from March 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was down 2.1% from February, about the same as the 1.9% drop from January to February.

The median Portland home price is now down 20.8% from the peak in July 2007.


The chart above shows the price index for the past five years. I had to go beyond 3 years as we are now staring at the same prices seen back in June 2005, almost 4 years ago

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market.

While the price index continues to fall everywhere, the growth rate (or decline rate) for the 20-City index as well as for the San Francisco Bay Area markets appears to have reached an inflection point. We need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but it looks like there are signs of a bottom approaching for the Bay Area as well as the rest of the country.

February was the first month where the price decline didn't set a new record for the SF Bay Area and for the overall 20 city index.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink this month that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation. But it's likely that we'll over correct before getting there.

This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

What else would you guys like to see? Any predictions on when/where we'll see the price bottom?

{Note, my apologies for the gap in posting. My folks were in town, then my company decided to give me a huge project to work on. I'm not complaining, I'd much rather be overworked right now than unemployed, but it has cut into my personal time}

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 14.4% in February (updated with analysis) - Case Shiller

The February Case Shiller data was released yesterday and February's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 14.4% from February 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was slightly better this month, only down 1.9% from January as compared to the 3% drop from December to January.

The median Portland home price is now down 19.1% from the peak in July 2007.


The chart above shows the price index for the past three years. You can clearly see that prices have now dropped well past the prices seen 3 years ago, and have hit levels not seen since July 2005.

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market.

While the price index continues to fall everywhere, the growth rate (or decline rate) for the 20-City index as well as for the San Francisco Bay Area markets appears to have reached an inflection point. We need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but it looks like there are signs of a bottom approaching for the Bay Area as well as the rest of the country.

February is the first month where the price decline didn't set a new record for the SF Bay Area and for the overall 20 city index.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink this month that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation.



This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

What else would you guys like to see? Any predictions on when/where we'll see the price bottom?

Please feel free to distribute these charts as long as you leave the footer!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 14.4% in February - Case Shiller

The Case Shiller data was released this morning, and Portland prices fell 14.4% in February, down 1.9% from January.

Full details and charts will be released later today Wednesday (work has been busy) when I get a break.

Portland Existing Home Prices Fall 14% in January - Case Shiller

The January Case Shiller data was released this morning and January's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 14% from January 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was even worse, down 3% from December, beating December's month over month 2.5% decline.

The median Portland home price is now down 17.5% from the peak in July 2007.



The chart above shows the price index for the past three years. You can clearly see that prices have now dropped to levels not seen since July 2005 and they continue to fall.


The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market.

While the price index continues to fall everywhere, the growth rate (or decline rate) for the 20-City index as well as for the San Francisco Bay Area markets appears to have reached an inflection point. We need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but it looks like there are signs of a bottom approaching for the Bay Area as well as the entire country.


This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink this month that represents Portland's average 6.6% growth starting in September 2000. You can see that the current price index is now well below the historic growth line which tells me that our historic growth rate is not sustainable, given that it's nearly double the rate of inflation. Others will try to use this data to show we've reached the bottom (or passed it) I'm sure.




This chart is more for historical curiosity than anything. It shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 8.6% in September - Case Shiller

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 8.6 % year over year in September 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is now down 9.0% from the peak in July 2007, wiping out any gains made since March 2006.

The index also fell 1.3% from August to September. The slight month over month gains we saw over the summer have now reversed and the monthly decline is accelerating.

The chart above clearly shows that there was definitely a bubble in Portland, and it is now deflating.

Last year in one of my first posts I predicted that price appreciation would go negative before March 2008, and looking back it looks like I was right.
The chart above shows the price index, and you can clearly see the bubble forming in 2004, accelerate in 2005 and then start to slow in 2006.

Last month I predicted that prices will be down 9% by the end of the year (down from my 10% estimate a few months back).

The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. While the 20 city index has started to flatten out the San Francisco Bay area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.
This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line (the light grey line) that represents 5% growth starting in September 2000. You can see that the current price index is still well above the 5% growth line, indicating that we still have a ways to go before prices fall back in line with historic averages. I'm predicting prices won't be back to historic norms until late 2009, but even then if the economy is still in the toilet I wouldn't expect growth to suddenly accelerate.

This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Median Prices down 6.7% in August - RMLS Market Action

RMLS released their August sales data and in what shouldn't be a surprise at this point, median Portland prices continue to decline, falling 6.7% in August compared to last year. Average prices are also declining, falling 9.7% compared to August last year.

One major change to note is that the RMLS is now reporting the total time a property has been on the market, not just the most recent time since a re-listing. The change from 56 days to 121 days is largely due to this change, although some increase is due to more properties on the market and fewer buyers. This should help reduce the number of re-listings as re-listing a property will no longer reset it's time on the market, unless the property is off the market for over 30 days. Charles Turner talks about this in more detail on his blog.

Inventory in Months seems to have stabilized around 10 months of supply. I believe a "normal" market should be between 3-6 months of supply, but this is a metric that seems to change regularly.

The above chart also shows changes in th emarket by sub-region. This shows that some areas such as North Portland and NE Portland are holding up a bit better than areas such as Milwaukie/Clackamas. However take this data with a serious grain of salt, this is 12 month rolling data, not monthly data, so any significant changes are still being masked and areas such as N and NE Portland might be negative Year over Year, but won't show up for a few more months.

I'd love to see the RMLS report their data monthly instead of a 12 month rolling average. I bet it changes once the market picks up, as they'll want to highlight the increase. I'd like to see the change now.

Portland Exisitng Home Prices Fall 5.8% in June - Case Shiller

We're taking a break from a great discussion on renting vs. buying today to highlight the latest Case Shiller data.

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 5.8% year over year in June 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.2% from the peak in July 2007.

The slight month over month gains we saw in April and May have now reversed, and the price index is down 0.3% from May.


The chart above clearly shows that 1. there was a bubble in Portland, and 2. it is now deflating. The chart and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring.

We've also seen the rate of decline slow a bit as peak buying season is in effect, but look for the decline to accelerate later in the year.

I predict we'll be down at least 10% year over year by the end of December. Any other predictions?

The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price the past two months which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.
The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.

The above chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized through the summer buying season.

I've added one more chart, which shows the price changes for the past 20 years. We saw one previous bubble around 1990, and then the more recent bubble. Prices have not been negative in Portland since they started tracking the market until just recently.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

Portland Exisitng Home Prices Plateau - Case Shiller

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 5.2% year over year in May 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 5.9% from the peak in July 2007.

The chart above clearly shows that 1. there was a bubble in Portland, and 2. it is now deflating. The chart and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring. Have I mentioned I like charts?

We're also seeing a bit of a plateau right now as peak buying season is in effect. This is seasonal so don't expect it to continue rising all year.
The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price the past two months which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.
The final chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized through the summer buying season.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.