Portland Median Prices down 6.7% in August - RMLS Market Action

RMLS released their August sales data and in what shouldn't be a surprise at this point, median Portland prices continue to decline, falling 6.7% in August compared to last year. Average prices are also declining, falling 9.7% compared to August last year.

One major change to note is that the RMLS is now reporting the total time a property has been on the market, not just the most recent time since a re-listing. The change from 56 days to 121 days is largely due to this change, although some increase is due to more properties on the market and fewer buyers. This should help reduce the number of re-listings as re-listing a property will no longer reset it's time on the market, unless the property is off the market for over 30 days. Charles Turner talks about this in more detail on his blog.

Inventory in Months seems to have stabilized around 10 months of supply. I believe a "normal" market should be between 3-6 months of supply, but this is a metric that seems to change regularly.

The above chart also shows changes in th emarket by sub-region. This shows that some areas such as North Portland and NE Portland are holding up a bit better than areas such as Milwaukie/Clackamas. However take this data with a serious grain of salt, this is 12 month rolling data, not monthly data, so any significant changes are still being masked and areas such as N and NE Portland might be negative Year over Year, but won't show up for a few more months.

I'd love to see the RMLS report their data monthly instead of a 12 month rolling average. I bet it changes once the market picks up, as they'll want to highlight the increase. I'd like to see the change now.

Portland Exisitng Home Prices Fall 5.8% in June - Case Shiller

We're taking a break from a great discussion on renting vs. buying today to highlight the latest Case Shiller data.

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 5.8% year over year in June 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.2% from the peak in July 2007.

The slight month over month gains we saw in April and May have now reversed, and the price index is down 0.3% from May.


The chart above clearly shows that 1. there was a bubble in Portland, and 2. it is now deflating. The chart and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring.

We've also seen the rate of decline slow a bit as peak buying season is in effect, but look for the decline to accelerate later in the year.

I predict we'll be down at least 10% year over year by the end of December. Any other predictions?

The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price the past two months which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.
The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.

The above chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized through the summer buying season.

I've added one more chart, which shows the price changes for the past 20 years. We saw one previous bubble around 1990, and then the more recent bubble. Prices have not been negative in Portland since they started tracking the market until just recently.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

Portland Exisitng Home Prices Plateau - Case Shiller

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 5.2% year over year in May 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 5.9% from the peak in July 2007.

The chart above clearly shows that 1. there was a bubble in Portland, and 2. it is now deflating. The chart and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring. Have I mentioned I like charts?

We're also seeing a bit of a plateau right now as peak buying season is in effect. This is seasonal so don't expect it to continue rising all year.
The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price the past two months which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.
The final chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized through the summer buying season.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 5.2% in May - Case Shiller

The Case Shiller data was released this morning, and the median price for existing Portland homes fell 5.2% in May from May 2007.

The peak price was in July 2007.

Portland Existing Home Prices Continue to Slide in April - Case Shiller

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 4.7% year over year in April 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.2% from the peak in July 2007.

The chart above clearly shows the bubble deflating, and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring.


The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price this month (April 2008) which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.
The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area, as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.

The final chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized temporarily. Unfortunately 2 points don't make a trend, so we'll have to wait and see if prices hold through the summer.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

Portland Existing Home Prices Continue to Slide in April

The Case Shiller home price index was released today, and Portland's median price continued to slide in April, dropping 4.7% from April 2007.

The median price was actually up 0.3% from March to April due to seasonality and the peak buying season kicking in.

The 20 city composite dropped 15.3% in April.

Seattle fell 4.9%, keeping track with Portland.

San Francisco is down 22.1% and Phoenix is down 25% year over year.

Full charts and report later today

Price Declines Hold Steady for May - RMLS

The May RMLS data was released last week (yeah, I know I'm late to the party, it's been a busy week and I certainly wan't spending Father's day weekend inside on the PC instead of playing with my daughter!)

The median price in May 2008 was 287,500, down 3.2% from last year, but up 5% from April's median price of $275,000.

I'll post more once I get more info from my source. I could use a second source if anyone has access to RMLS data that they'd like to share.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 4% in March

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 4% year over year in March 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.5% from the peak in July 2007.

The chart above clearly shows the bubble deflating, and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring. Prices have clearly started accelerating downwards as the fundamental issues driving the price declines (lack of financing for buyer's with poor credit or low down-payments, prices vs. income ratios out of whack, too much inventory, etc) have not changed.

The price index has fallen to 174.39, less than the point in May 2006 (175.20).

Prices in Seattle and Portland are still following the national trend with a one year delay, as the previous chart above shows. National price declines show no signs of slowing, which indicates that Portland is likely in for the same ride.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 4% in April - Case Shiller

Prices of existing Portland homes dropped 4% year over year in April according to Case Shiller, down an additional 1% from March. Prices have rolled back to the same level as May 2006, wiping out almost 2 years of gains.

More data later today once I have a chance to update the spreadsheets.

Median and Average Prices Drop in April

According to the RMLS data released late last week, both the average and median prices in the Portland metro area dropped last month.

The median price dropped 3.5% from $280k in April 2007 to $275k in April 2008, while the average price dropped 3.9% from $338.2k to $325k.

The chart above shows the forecasted appreciation if prices hold steady. We'll see -8.3% appreciation in July if the median price holds steady at $275k.

Inventory continues to grow as more sellers put their homes on the market. Sales pace has increased as it typically does in the spring, but is still well down from last year. This chart clearly shows the decrease in sales, and the corresponding increase in inventory.

The affordability index moved closer to neutral in April, likely due to the decrease in median price.
The spread of list to sales price also increased in April, likely due to sellers feeling more confident as the spring selling season hits.

Thanks again to Chris at Johnson Gardner for the charts and analysis. He's been swamped (as have I) and apologizes for the lack of more detailed analysis. Maybe if we scream loud enough he'll find a few minutes this weekend to crank them out.

I should be back to posting more frequently as my arm is healing nicely and I can type again.

No Sign of a Turnaround - Feb Sales Data

The February sales data was just released, so let's start with the leading indicators, inventory and sales rate.

Overall inventory is up in Feb to 14,870 units, from 14,131 in Jan. More importantly, inventory is up 40% year over year, the same as in January. So no signs of inventory dropping.

The number of sales in Feb was up from 1084 in Jan to 1380 in Feb, which is normal as Jan is typically the slowest month. Sales in Feb 08 are down 29.3% from Feb 07.
Combine sales and inventory and you get months of inventory, which dropped from 12.8 months in January, to 10.8 months in February. Year over year months of inventory have more than doubled from Feb 07, up 102.8% in Feb 08.
So even though sales are down and inventory is up, the median price has managed to hold steady at $280k, up 0.7% from Feb 07. The market peaked in August 2007 at $300k, so today's price is down 7% from the peak.
In the last chart, if we assume prices remain flat at $280k, then by July we will see -7% Year over Year appreciation.

Overall the Portland market appears to continue softening, and it will be interesting to see how much of a bump we see in the spring. I believe that the contributing factors (speculating and cheap credit) that increased demand and led to the market run-up are effectively gone, and with the reduced demand we will eventually see prices drop.

If you find your dream house, bargain hard, you just might be the only buyer they see.

Portland median prices continue to fall

The latest Case Shiller data for December 2007 was released today. The median Portland home price fell 0.6% from November to December, from 183.65 to 182.47.

Year over year growth slowed slightly from 1.3% to 1.2%, but is surprisingly still positive.Don't forget that this data is backwards looking, and almost two months old at this point. Given today's economic indicators I expect things will continue to get worse.

On the bright side I do believe that Portland is weathering the storm for a few reasons.

1. The urban growth boundary prevents the overbuilding that other cities have seen.
2. We have a lower than average foreclosure rate than other areas, but we are certainly not immune from risky, 100% financing.