Home Builder Association Annual Forecast Today!

The Home Builders Association or Metro Portland is holding its annual forecast meeting today.

I assume the intended audience is home builders and those in the trade, but the comment on the last slide of this presentation that we've hit bottom is interesting, especially as the next comment is that "pricing may still erode".

For those that are in the market for an existing, or new home, this really means that the market has not bottomed for sellers or buyers, but rather it can't get much worse for builders, as we're at a 20+ year low this month for new housing starts.

Lots of interesting data in the presentations, although without the commentary it's hard to know what they're trying to show in each slide. Other than "it's bad, it's really (*&%$ bad!"

But let's hit a few highlights:

Employment growth is negative
Manufacturing and construction jobs are down 5% and 10% respectively
New residential building permits are down 40% from last year
Unemployment is up
New migration to Portland is still positive
Condo inventory is over 15 months of supply
East Portland is doing better than all other Portland regions, with only 7.5 months of supply
The national homeowner vacancy rate has nearly doubled over the past few years

The presentations are interesting, but nothing really new or suprising for those following this blog.

Oh, and props to Clint for having his work poached for the presentation.

Thanks to Hallie for the link!

Feeling Welcome on the Blogosphere

Clint rolled out the welcome mat the other day and I wanted to say thanks!

I belive he and I have similar goals, but I also believe we have a few different interests, so I'm looking forward to see where we both go over the next few months.

I hope to add more individual listings, whether they are interesting architectural structures, bad flips, overpriced, or just worth pointing out.

There is a link to Clint's blog over on the right.

Thanks Clint!

What Would You Like to See?

The blog is starting to see some traffic, so thank you to all who are coming to visit and leaving comments.

My goal is still to find as much data as I can, and help paint a true portrait of the Portland real estate market. But I'd like to know what kind or information and analysis YOU would like to see. My current thoughts include:

1. Median pricing trends, predictions and drivers
2. Neighborhood pricing trends and drivers
3. Foreclosure statistics and locations
4. Pricing reductions
5. Inventory changes due to delistings (unlistings?)
6. Exposing real estate agent tricks and misinformation
7. Sub-prime and ARM loan information

Outside of market analysis, I'm also an architecture buff (and Portland is a fantastic place to be for interesting homes!), but not a fan of quick flips. Is there any interest in coverage of:

A. Interesting properties for sale
B. Bad flips

Let me know your thoughts, and if anyone has access to NAR data they'd be willing to share, please let me know.

Portland Home Price Appreciation Continues March South

The latest S&P Case Shiller data was released a few days ago, and the median price appreciation continued to drop in November 2007, down another 0.6% from 1.9% to 1.3%. It's still positive, but at this rate it will be negative within a few months, and I haven't seen any news that gives me any hope of things turning around.