Tuesday, March 3, 2009

How Well is Your Neighborhood Holding Up?



While most people here are interested in the monthly RMLS reports and Case Shiller data, what they really want to know is "how is my neighborhood holding up?"

To answer this question I was able to get a year over year view of median prices for the Portland market by RMLS neighborhood for January 2009, and the results are interesting. (click on the chart for a larger view)

[edit] Tom at Agent503 has year over year data for a few zip codes here.

A few highlights:

For the 4 inner Portland neighborhoods, NE Portland is holding up the best with median prices down 1.8% from Jan 09 vs Jan 08.

Columbia County is faring the worst, with median prices falling 26% in Jan 09.

If you're interested in a beach house, coastal prices are down 17.4%.

The overall Portland market is down 10.7% year over year.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the 'why's behind the differences.

Next up I'm going to look at why I belive the RMLS methodology for calculating growth rates is seriously flawed, and why you should ignore them - something I have mentioned repeatedly. I will also look at sales rates by neighborhood. Stay tuned!

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11 comments:

Anonymous said...

NE Portland, N Portland, SE Portland are all pretty useless categories, aren't they? Is it helpful to lump Grant Park and Park Rose together? Overlook and Portsmouth?

I'd like to see some numbers broken down by actual neighborhoods. Website's like movingtoportland are able to break down listing by individual neighborhoods, so it seems like it should be possible to break down the sales by actual neighborhoods as well.

PDX Outsider said...

"Website's like movingtoportland are able to break down listing by individual neighborhoods, so it seems like it should be possible to break down the sales by actual neighborhoods as well."

You're right, it should be and is possible, but none of the local Realtors has done it. I am not an agent and I don't plan to become one just to get the raw RMLS data.

Most local agents just blindly quote whatever the RMLS publishes, none I have seen do anything beyond the official RMLS reports.

If anybody knows of a Realtor that is publishing more granular data please let me know, I would be more than happy to link to them.

bearlee said...

On Jan. 4th Agent 503 posted YOY data for close-in zip codes which might help

http://agent503.com/2009/01/04/playing-case-shiller-to-your-benefit/

bearlee said...

Outsider, what exactly do you mean by 'sales rate'? Anything to do with expired listings? One of the reasons I think Buckman/Kerns is 'holding up' is that folks would rather pull their house off the market rather than lower the prices with the thought that a brighter day is just around the corner! I have seen this with three houses within a few blocks of the house I sold in '07.

Anonymous said...

I wasn't suggesting that YOU should provide those numbers; just that a breakdown of that type would be much more helpful than the NE, SE, SW, N, NW break-down that we usually see. Of course, that would probably deflate all of the realtors' claims about how strong "close-in" portland is.

DianneG said...

The RMLS uses the areas NE, N, SE, etc, because the areas were divided up to match the catagories used in the Oregonian's classifieds Once upon a time that was a useful/helpful concept. But with the advent of the Internet, and the decline in newspaper circulaiton, it is now feeling pretty archaic.

That being said, RMLS data can be broken down by zip code, elementary school, and even specific mapping coordinates by any Realtor who is in the RMLS.

Anonymous said...

RMLS areas are particularly bad the farther you go outside the city. The Oregonian/RMLS areas were decided when our population was a fraction of today.

Take area 145 for example, what does a house a few blocks south of Sellwood have in common with one in Estacada? In the old days there just were not too many houses changing hands in that vast area but since Clackamas/Happy Valley/Demascus has been populated...

Take area 149, it used to include some farms but now runs from Forest Heights to Vernonia.

Area 151 was basically Tigard in the day but now Sherwood is big enough for its own area.

Anonymous said...

Location, location, location.

The areas that have fallen the least tend to be (overgeneralization alert) the more "desireable" areas. Reputation for better schools, less crime, proximity to city center.

Anonymous said...

"Location, location, location."

More like:

"Denial, denial, denial"

and

"Debt, debt, debt."

eyepatchman said...

Hi all,

Here's an interesting one for you.

An analysis of the current economic crisis we are all unfortunately facing but looked at from a slightly different perspective.

This analysis looks at past banking crises and how they have effected various aspects of the economy.

It is titled The Banking Crisis - Where are we now? (follow the link should you be interested) and has particularly interesting points about how the previous banking crises has effected assets including property prices.

bearlee said...

Didn't you hear Ben's little pep talk today, Mr. Eyepatchman!?!?!

Thanks for the link. My big question is: Does our government have the stomach for the much needed restructuring? I sure don't hear much talk about it:(