Apparently I have ruffled a few feathers over on Trulia when I asked if their heatmap data was based on RMLS (inflated) figures, or on assessor data (more accurate IMO).
The thread is here if you'd care to join in.
Frankly I'm tired of having to keep portlandmaps.com up whenever I see a house listing, to get the true picture of the size of the house. I heard from a Realtor that RMLS requires Realtors to input the total size of a house (including unfinished basements and attics) not just livable space.
I realize that the assessor data can be wrong, but I feel that it's more accurate than the size data that RMLS posts. I'd like to see them change this policy, what do you think?
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Those Crazy Realtors
A local real estate agent (who shall remain nameless) recently sent a friend this Op-ed piece from the Wall Street Journal. along with this comment:
"Here is an interesting article I thought you might enjoy. It is a bit wordy but very good national information about the real estate market. Remember, the article is referring to our market nationally.
I also love that this piece really refers to the national market, and specifically talks about new housing starts, neither of which really apply to Oregon or Portland specifically.
But my favorite is the last line. If relatively strong means we've only dropped 7% when the rest of the country has dropped 10% or more, then yes, we're relatively strong.
It must be exhausting staying that optomistic all the time!
"Here is an interesting article I thought you might enjoy. It is a bit wordy but very good national information about the real estate market. Remember, the article is referring to our market nationally.
Oregon real estate is still relatively strong!"
Wow. 2 pages is wordy? Are her clients illiterate on average?I also love that this piece really refers to the national market, and specifically talks about new housing starts, neither of which really apply to Oregon or Portland specifically.
But my favorite is the last line. If relatively strong means we've only dropped 7% when the rest of the country has dropped 10% or more, then yes, we're relatively strong.
It must be exhausting staying that optomistic all the time!
New open thread, bring on Memorial Day!
Here's a new open thread for you. Hopefully everybody survived last weeks heat wave, I for one was happy to see a little rain and cooler temps.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Median and Average Prices Drop in April
According to the RMLS data released late last week, both the average and median prices in the Portland metro area dropped last month.
The median price dropped 3.5% from $280k in April 2007 to $275k in April 2008, while the average price dropped 3.9% from $338.2k to $325k.
The chart above shows the forecasted appreciation if prices hold steady. We'll see -8.3% appreciation in July if the median price holds steady at $275k.
Inventory continues to grow as more sellers put their homes on the market. Sales pace has increased as it typically does in the spring, but is still well down from last year. This chart clearly shows the decrease in sales, and the corresponding increase in inventory.
The affordability index moved closer to neutral in April, likely due to the decrease in median price.
The spread of list to sales price also increased in April, likely due to sellers feeling more confident as the spring selling season hits.
Thanks again to Chris at Johnson Gardner for the charts and analysis. He's been swamped (as have I) and apologizes for the lack of more detailed analysis. Maybe if we scream loud enough he'll find a few minutes this weekend to crank them out.
I should be back to posting more frequently as my arm is healing nicely and I can type again.
The median price dropped 3.5% from $280k in April 2007 to $275k in April 2008, while the average price dropped 3.9% from $338.2k to $325k.
The chart above shows the forecasted appreciation if prices hold steady. We'll see -8.3% appreciation in July if the median price holds steady at $275k.
Inventory continues to grow as more sellers put their homes on the market. Sales pace has increased as it typically does in the spring, but is still well down from last year. This chart clearly shows the decrease in sales, and the corresponding increase in inventory.
The affordability index moved closer to neutral in April, likely due to the decrease in median price.
The spread of list to sales price also increased in April, likely due to sellers feeling more confident as the spring selling season hits.Thanks again to Chris at Johnson Gardner for the charts and analysis. He's been swamped (as have I) and apologizes for the lack of more detailed analysis. Maybe if we scream loud enough he'll find a few minutes this weekend to crank them out.
I should be back to posting more frequently as my arm is healing nicely and I can type again.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
What Do Your Neighbors Think?
A friend sent this over, recent results of a neighborhood survey on the quality of life in Portland.
I haven't had time to dive through the results, but this one caught my eye:
Livability of Portland, by neighborhood.
The fact that Irvington is top of the list isn't surprising, but the fact that Elliot is near the top was a bit surprising. Good to see that happiness doesn't require lots of $$.
I haven't had time to dive through the results, but this one caught my eye:
Livability of Portland, by neighborhood.
The fact that Irvington is top of the list isn't surprising, but the fact that Elliot is near the top was a bit surprising. Good to see that happiness doesn't require lots of $$.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Top 8 Reasons To Buy Now
A few readers have made comments on why now is a good time to buy. Some of these are from a recent Money magazine article, others were added by readers. I thought we'd compile them and add to them, gathering the wisdom of the crowd.
Top 8 reasons to buy now (in Portland):
1. Record inventory, more houses to choose from, in all price ranges
2. Sales are down 40%, much less likelihood that you'll get into a bidding war, more time to craft a good offer
3. Interest rates are still low
4. Median prices have already dropped more than 7% from the August 2007 high, a savings of $21k on a $300k house
5. Some houses are being priced more realistically
6. Sellers are starting to drop their prices when they don't get offers
7. Sellers are starting to understand that the spring bump is more of a molehill, and are much more willing to negotiate
8. It's difficult to time the bottom (but not impossible!), but you're better off now that you were last year. Still, things are likely to keep going down, so don't be afraid to ask for more discounts.
We'll get to reasons NOT to buy now in the next post. But for now, what other reasons do you have?
Top 8 reasons to buy now (in Portland):
1. Record inventory, more houses to choose from, in all price ranges
2. Sales are down 40%, much less likelihood that you'll get into a bidding war, more time to craft a good offer
3. Interest rates are still low
4. Median prices have already dropped more than 7% from the August 2007 high, a savings of $21k on a $300k house
5. Some houses are being priced more realistically
6. Sellers are starting to drop their prices when they don't get offers
7. Sellers are starting to understand that the spring bump is more of a molehill, and are much more willing to negotiate
8. It's difficult to time the bottom (but not impossible!), but you're better off now that you were last year. Still, things are likely to keep going down, so don't be afraid to ask for more discounts.
We'll get to reasons NOT to buy now in the next post. But for now, what other reasons do you have?
California Speculator Loses 9 Houses
Will sent this one in:
"You may have already caught this one...
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0952458820080511?sp=true
I thought I'd send it along in case it slipped by. I don't think too many people will be losing sleep over this guys loss."
From the article:
"LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A California man who has defaulted on nine homes and expects banks to foreclose on all of them, forcing him into bankruptcy, says he now considers it a mistake to have invested in the real estate market.
Shawn Forgaard, a 37-year-old software company project manager, bought one home for his family to live in and nine more as investments. He stands to lose all the investment houses in the mortgage meltdown but says he has come away wiser from the experience.
...
Forgaard bought a house in Santa Cruz, about 60 miles (100 km) south of San Francisco, in 2000. Four years later, using $800,000 in stock options, he began snapping up investment properties, putting 10 percent to 40 percent down on negative amortization loans -- in which payments do not cover the interest so that a borrower's balance grows over time."
I gotta give this guy credit, he actually takes responsibility for his mistake. He knew he was speculating and got burned.
"I knew I was sitting on time bombs," Forgaard said. "I knew the market was going to go soft and I knew that property values would decline. But I figured that I had enough equity to survive the storm and sell or take the loss and refinance.
"You may have already caught this one...
http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0952458820080511?sp=true
I thought I'd send it along in case it slipped by. I don't think too many people will be losing sleep over this guys loss."
From the article:
"LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A California man who has defaulted on nine homes and expects banks to foreclose on all of them, forcing him into bankruptcy, says he now considers it a mistake to have invested in the real estate market.
Shawn Forgaard, a 37-year-old software company project manager, bought one home for his family to live in and nine more as investments. He stands to lose all the investment houses in the mortgage meltdown but says he has come away wiser from the experience.
...
Forgaard bought a house in Santa Cruz, about 60 miles (100 km) south of San Francisco, in 2000. Four years later, using $800,000 in stock options, he began snapping up investment properties, putting 10 percent to 40 percent down on negative amortization loans -- in which payments do not cover the interest so that a borrower's balance grows over time."
I gotta give this guy credit, he actually takes responsibility for his mistake. He knew he was speculating and got burned.
"I knew I was sitting on time bombs," Forgaard said. "I knew the market was going to go soft and I knew that property values would decline. But I figured that I had enough equity to survive the storm and sell or take the loss and refinance.
"I didn't anticipate a downturn of epic proportions such that home values are 40 percent less than they were," he said.
"Where I went wrong is I invested heavily in an area that wasn't my passion and I had a really demanding full-time job so I couldn't pay attention to nuances, the little indicators telling you the housing market was going soft," he said. "I was in over my head."
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