At least one Realtor blog is now predicting a decline in prices for the Portland metro area in March. "Portland Home Prices Finally Fall in March"
I have some doubts about his methodology, but I give them props for going on record as predicting a decline, and I imagine they will soon be run out of town by the Portland NAR.
Friday, April 4, 2008
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Jeffrey Kempe is reporting a rise in prices from the March data.
We've found that the NAR has a worse bark than bite. Once the tide has turned and everyone knows it, they'll get quiet.
We've found that the NAR has a worse bark than bite. Once the tide has turned and everyone knows it, they'll get quiet.
Oh, I doubt they're going to shutup. No, they'll still be cheerleading, but fewer and fewer people are believing the hype.
I have been coached by Jeff about methodology: I need to back out listings that have been canceled and withdrawn from the inventory estimates, and that I omitted a couple of regions. Also there are transactions that will be included in March numbers, but not posted on March 31 when I pulled data. I have not had a chance to dive back into the data since I received this counsel, but it looks like the impact is that we will report prices being slightly up instead of slightly down. Inventory differences will be much larger – essentially flat from February.
I think I will leave the predicting to Jeff.
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