The blog is starting to see some traffic, so thank you to all who are coming to visit and leaving comments.
My goal is still to find as much data as I can, and help paint a true portrait of the Portland real estate market. But I'd like to know what kind or information and analysis YOU would like to see. My current thoughts include:
1. Median pricing trends, predictions and drivers
2. Neighborhood pricing trends and drivers
3. Foreclosure statistics and locations
4. Pricing reductions
5. Inventory changes due to delistings (unlistings?)
6. Exposing real estate agent tricks and misinformation
7. Sub-prime and ARM loan information
Outside of market analysis, I'm also an architecture buff (and Portland is a fantastic place to be for interesting homes!), but not a fan of quick flips. Is there any interest in coverage of:
A. Interesting properties for sale
B. Bad flips
Let me know your thoughts, and if anyone has access to NAR data they'd be willing to share, please let me know.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
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11 comments:
I like all of 1-7.
Have you looked at Seattle Bubble blog? One feature of that site are forums, which makes it much easier to focus on specific subjects.
My other thought is that you require posters to register. In that way you can better manage those who would abuse your efforts.
I'm interested in 1-7 too. I'd like to see stats on declines in listing prices. I heard from a realtor last week that it's not unusual to see offers at 10% below list these days, but she was hesitant to admit to any declines on list prices.
I'm particularly interested in watching ARM reset stats. Based on my own casual tracking, it looks like a substantial number of residential listings these days are properties bought within the past 2 years. Some are being sold by non-resident owners (e.g., speculators), but some appear to be owner-occupied residences. Is this the first signs of an ARM reset problem?
I'm definitely interested in "Interesting properties for sale" and "Bad flips." As far as the interesting properties, I would like to see PDX metro area s well as Oreogn in general. I saw a CRAZY a-frame in Hillsboro, very expensive. Also, I wonder if we have any dome homes or berm homes around Oregon. I'm sure somewhere there's got to be some. Bad flips may be good for a while. It's always fun to see greedy people get what they're owed. Did you see the article in Sunday's Oregonian? The guy who owns Ridge Mortgage admitted he got greedy and tried to flip a high rise condo. Bought it for about $800k, tried selling for a Mil, no takers. He ended up defaulting on the loan. And now he is struggling to keep his business doors open. What an advertisement, huh?
Also, I would like to see economic data on Portland, Oregon. I believe I read somewhere the median household income is around $57,000. And the average price is around $300,000. So if you make $4,750 per month per household gross, and your mortgage payment is $3,000 per month, you are already at a 63% debt-to-income ratio, that's before property tax, insurance, HOA, maintenance. Oh, and other things, like television, car payments, etc. I do not understand how this market supports itself. That is why I am a firm believer that the gap between income and home prices must begin to close.
I would not require people to register on your blog. I view it as a turn off and prefer the freedom to post without having to verify email addresses, etc.
My 2 cents.
How about stats on how Portland compares to the other US markets. I think its good to be realistic about what we're going through but at the same time there is no denying that PDX is pretty strong right now if you're paying attention to whats going on around us.
Also, drill down a little bit when making these forecasts/observations. If you look closely you will see that the condo market really affects some of these big stats that people like to throw out with the "bubble" talk (months of inventory, price reductions, etc).. The market for houses in PDX has shown some good signs of improvement lately but the condo market is pretty saturated.
Real Estate drives the economy and I think its important to try and be positive about things instead of insisting that its all going to hell.
Show us optimistic people that you really know what you're talking about.
i would like to see bad flips. housing panic used to show a post which would have the photos of the house from the listing with a header reading: this ATM now for sale (i am in southern cal).
the sales data was all right there where you could see the paid price, equity stripping, then list price, then flip gone flop.
there ares ome doozies in portland i have seen and burbs i have seen and they seem to just sit thinking someone will come along and buy, it seems a lot of the flippers are very inexperienced in portland. it is a new thing to portland i guess.
i can send you examples with addresses if you like.
I'd like to see some regular data tracked against previous data, or peak prices. Median prices, avg price/sq. foot, inventory, etc.
I'm not sure if this is your thing, but if it is, that's what I'd like to see :)
One more thing: Can you setup an RSS feed for your blog (feedburner is popular for this) ?
Patient Renter said...
"I'd like to see some regular data tracked against previous data, or peak prices. Median prices, avg price/sq. foot, inventory, etc.
I'm not sure if this is your thing, but if it is, that's what I'd like to see :)"
This is very much my thing, I just need to find the data. As I find reliable sources I will start slicing and dicing it. I know the NAR data would be the best source, so I either need to find access to it, or go get my Realtor license to get access to it.
I just found your blog today and am really enjoying it. Real estate schadenfreude is fun, especially where over-zealous speculators are concerned.
I'd like to see posts about failing upscale condo towers or cheap apartment-to-condo conversions.
The Forest Heights subdivision is also a great untapped resource for blogging. There's a growing number of foreclosures up there, where people arrogantly purchased more home than they could afford.
I'd also be interested in "Interesting properties for sale" and "Bad flips." I'm especially interested in the Craftsman style and mid-century modern for architecture. I'm from the bay area in California (yep, one of THEM!), been here for 40 years, but am thinking about moving to Oregon one of these days.
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