Median Home Price Drop 14% in March - RMLS

The March RMLS data was released this week, and there doesn't seem to be much sign of a recovery just yet.

Ignore the mainstream media comments about sales being up. They always rise in the spring, the real measure is of course how they compare to last year. And in that comparison things are bad. Even the RMLS was unusually stoic stating:

"Portland metro area market activity continued to grow over last month, but fell short of reaching March 2008 levels."

There were 1184 closed sales in March 2009, down 30% from March 2008.

Sales were up 28% from February 2009, but they were up 22% from Feb to March 2008, and I'm sure they were up a similar amount in 2007.

A couple other highlights:

The March 2009 median price was $246,400, down 14% from $286,500 in March 2008.

3685 new properties were listed in March 2009, down 28.5% from March 2008. This is the one bright spot, as new listings fell to their lowest level in 10 years, signaling that the glut of inventory might eventually start clearing up.

Total inventory dropped 8%, from 15,388 to 14,208 in March 2009. This also signals that the bottom might be coming, as inventories shrink prices will eventually stabilize.

Unfortunately prices are still dropping like a rock with no sign of letting up, which is all most folks really care about. And given our 12%+ unemployment rate I don't see things getting better anytime soon.

Condo Sales Stall Like an Old Plymouth

According to a recent article, "Condo pipeline dries up" in The Portland Business Journal, sales of new condo's in Portland have come to a screeching halt.

"The John Ross condominiums have sweeping views, an elegant shape that inspires architectural envy, and a whole lot of unsold units.

To date, just 177 of its 303 units have attracted buyers.

According to Multnomah County property records, a database that includes sale dates along with information about the property, buyers and prices, just two units have sold in 2008."

Only 2 units have sold in 5 months? At that rate I'll be dead before they sell the rest.

According to the article, there are over 3 years of inventory for condo's at the current sales rate.

"Today, Portland has about 2,500 unsold condominiums, a figure that includes developers' inventories and another 1,000 "phantom units," which refers to condominiums bought by investors who intended to turn a quick profit and who apparently are holding out for the market to return.

Assuming Portland buyers have an appetite for 700 to 1,000 units a year, it will take nearly three years to clear out the current inventory."

I'm still amazed that the construction industry hasn't found better ways to predict when the market is going to slowdown or pickup. It seems like it's always feast of famine. Develop thousands of new units, flood the market, stop construction, then miss the bottom and scramble to build more.

""We probably have about a two-year supply in the downtown area," said Newton, who said barring an economic collapse, Portland continues to attract newcomers and will need to keep adding new housing in the future."

Yes yes, we know so many people are moving here. With a soft economy I'm not sure where these jobs are coming from. I'll post the migration statistics when I find them again.

But if you're in the market for a condo (and I know a few readers are) it should be a great time to negotiate. And will likely only get better until the inventory drops, either from increased sales, or conversions to apartments.

March RMLS Data and Analysis

The March RMLS data was released this week and it's not as bad as I expected. A big thank you goes out to Chris at Johnson Gardner for help with the analysis. I thought I was a good analyst, but Chris is better. Click on any of the chart to enlarge them. On to the charts!



The median price in March was basically flat, up only 0.6% Year over Year, and up 2.7% from February. Year over year growth has basically been flat for three months now.

Inventory as measured by the absolute number of homes on the market rose again in March for the third straight month, nearing 15,900 units. So while inventory in terms of months has fallen since January as a result of a more accelerated (seasonal) sales pace, the total number of sellers on the market has increased. In other words, the rate of sales in the first quarter has yet to keep pace with new additions to the market. The rate of sales is down 39.1%, and I believe that the lack of buyers will eventually drive down prices.

The affordability measure in the metro area fell in March for the second straight month. This was partially the impact of a monthly increase and median prices [$280,000 in (Feb 08) vs. $286,500 (Mar 08] and a slight uptick in the average 30-year FRM.

The results of this figure are deceiving. This chart calculates the spread of listing to sales prices in an attempt to measure seller optimism (or reality). While the results for March indicate a narrowing spread, this was the result of a higher sales price and stagnate listing prices. This would indicate that on average--at least in March, that buyers came back to the sellers in terms of price and not vice versa.

Chris also added a couple cool new charts and some more detailed analysis this month.

This is a cool visual that scatter plots all sales under $1,000,000 by price and sq. ft. The trendlines would indicate that prices have in fact remained roughly consistent year over year.

This chart shows the distribution of sales by price cohort. Using $300,000 as a benchmark there was a slight 1.1% shift toward higher priced homes (Above $300,000) obviously accounting for the modest uptick in median price.

This chart displays the year-over-year change in sales pace by price point. This chart allows us to measure which cohorts of the market are seeing the biggest slowdown. The 56% decrease in homes below $150,000, and to a certain extent $200,000 to $300,000 is an indication of marginal or first time buyers either waiting it out or failing to get financing.

A summary of market activity by product type. (Note from Chris: Note that RMLS issued a section on condo appreciation that listed an average condo sales price of $336,500 for March 2008. I am fairly certain this is a miscalculation). Not how the average sales price in the market is no longer increasing. In my opinion this would suggest that tightening in terms of pricing is starting to occur.

This data differs from the data reported in the RMLS Market Action. The RMLS likes to report the last 12 months vs the previous 12 months, and based on this methodology it appears that the average price is still increasing. I believe our method here is more accurate, and more clearly shows changes in growth, both up or down.

It shows inventory in terms of months (using the Realtors calculation) by price point. Good luck selling your $600,000+ home.

This chart shows median sales price and sales pace by subregion. Next month we'll get to year over year changes.

Again a big thanks to Chris for all this analysis.

Lying with statistics

One of our reader's sent in a link to this article on CNNMoney.com, "Home sales rise on biggest-ever price drop".

"The National Association of Realtors reported that sales by homeowners rose 2.9% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 5.03 million, up from January's reading of 4.89 million. It was the first month-over-month rise of the annualized pace since July."

This comment makes it seem like sales have bottomed out and are starting to rebound. The NAR (and the mainstream media) loves to quote month over month increases and declines, when they should be focused on year-over-year changes.

"Though February's pace beat economists' expectations, sales last month were still down 23.8% from a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the report to show existing home sales slowed to an annual pace of 4.86 million.

The median price of a home sold during the month fell 8.2% to $195,900 from $213,500 a year earlier - the largest year-over-year price drop on record. Before the start of the current housing slump, it had been 11 years since prices declined, when compared with the same period a year earlier.

"That's a huge drop in prices, which is how you move the merchandise," said Kasriel.

Sale prices have now fallen 15% from their peak in July 2006, and are down 14% from June 2007, when the most recent steady downturn began. That brings the median price of existing homes sold down to May 2004 levels."

There's the real story. Even though prices have dropped 8.7% from February last year (the largest drop ever recorded), sales are still down almost 24% from last February. That doesn't sound like the merchandise is moving to me.

If you look at the recent chart I posted on sales per month, you'll see that an increase in sales is totally normal for February. (this is Portland data, but I'm sure nationally you see the same trend) That's not news. The fact that sales didn't increase with an 8% decrease in prices? That's news. That means we're far from the end of the slump.

"The report is a sign that the price environment is weaker than the Realtors' most recent forecasts. Though NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a release that a "notable gain" in existing home sales is not expected until the second half of 2008, the Realtors' March forecast called for only a 6.3% decline in housing prices in the first quarter, compared to a year ago. NAR also forecast a median price of $200,500 for the first quarter. Given the current environment, March sales would need a very strong showing, both in median prices and the pace of sales, to reach the Realtors' forecast."

Ouch.

Portland Real Estate Market More Affordable?

One of the primary reasons I started this blog was to provide a more objective view of the Portland real estate market. Some, if not most of the data and statistics the NAR publishes are misleading, if not bordering on misrepresentation. For example, their measure of days on the market is meaningless, because listings can and ARE regularly canceled and re-listed with a new number, starting the counter over again.

While I don’t expect the NAR to change their policies anytime soon, at least I can show a more realistic picture to help both buyers and sellers better understand the market so that sellers can get their home sold quickly and buyers can find their dream house – both at the right price.

A friend of this blog - who wishes to remain anonymous - has provided the following data and charts of the greater Portland real estate market. I will be updating this data monthly as well as adding new sources and analysis as I go along. So here goes.

The median home price in Portland (chart 1) peaked in August 2007 at $300k and has since dropped 6.6% to $280k in January 2008. Year over year prices are still up 1.8% (chart 2) in January but chart 1 clearly shows a downward trend.

Chart 2 shows the year over year (YoY) price appreciation. The forecast in chart 2 is based on the assumption that the median price stays flat at $280k. If the median price drops, the YoY change will drop further. But within a few months we'll be showing negative YoY appreciation, finally catching up to the rest of the country.

Chart 3 shows the rate of sales (sales pace) as well as the total inventory of houses. You can clearly see inventory rising while sales have dropped and the drop appears to be accelerating. Divide inventory by sales rate and you get months of sales, which currently stands at 12.8 months. In other words, if no new houses are listed, it would take over a year for all the inventory to be sold at the current sales rate.

Chart 4 shows affordability in Portland. Anything less than 0 means that the median house is not affordable by the buyer with median income. The chart shows that in August 2007 median affordability peaked around -$50k, but the combination of lower median prices and lower interest rates has helped affordability. Unfortunately in February interest rates increased significantly so I expect the trend to reverse unless median prices fall significantly.

Chart 5 shows the spread between median list price and median sales price, or the “balance of reality” indicator. The drop around July 07 is due to buyers having to reduce their asking prices to find sellers as the market started to soften.

Chart 6 shows the spread of rents to mortgages. In 2002-2003 we were below the historic average, but in the past few years the spread has accelerated. Even though rents have risen recently, they haven’t risen as fast as the median mortgage payment. I expect rents to continue to increase as mortgages drop, closing the gap over the next 1-2 years. Historically the spread has ranged around 140%, and even with the recent increases in rents we're still 30% over the long term average. Expect rents to continue to increase due to apartments being converted into condos, and because more people will not be able to afford houses and will therefore be looking to rent.

Stay tuned for February data, which is already shaping up to be even worse.

EDIT: I've reduced the size of the charts, so they are readable when you click on them to make them larger.

Portland Median House Prices Finally Drop as Sales Plunge 42%

A friend of the blog recently sent some preliminary February data:

1) Feb 2008 saw only 1,208 sales, down 42% from 2,087 in Feb 2007, but up from 1,084 in Jan 2008.

2) I would expect median prices to stay roughly the same in Feb 2008. My preliminary number is $276,600, slightly down from $280,000 in Jan 2008. However, looking back to Feb 2007, this would be the first period of Portland's downturn demonstrating negative year-over-year appreciation (Median $278,000 in Feb 07)

3) Given a conservative final sale pace range for Feb of 1,250 to 1,350 sales, look for inventory to fall slightly, A range of 10.6 months to 11.4 months"

A 42% drop would easily trump last months 32% drop, but given that the few last sales have yet to be recorded we'll probably end up closer to a 35% drop.

It also looks like we're headed into negative territory, finally. I'm tired of explaining to people that no, the Portland market is not still appreciating. We might finally have the data to show it on a year over year basis.

Again this is preliminary data, but it doesn't look like the spring bounce has started to materialize just yet, even with the fantastic weather we had in February.