Home Builder Association Annual Forecast Today!

The Home Builders Association or Metro Portland is holding its annual forecast meeting today.

I assume the intended audience is home builders and those in the trade, but the comment on the last slide of this presentation that we've hit bottom is interesting, especially as the next comment is that "pricing may still erode".

For those that are in the market for an existing, or new home, this really means that the market has not bottomed for sellers or buyers, but rather it can't get much worse for builders, as we're at a 20+ year low this month for new housing starts.

Lots of interesting data in the presentations, although without the commentary it's hard to know what they're trying to show in each slide. Other than "it's bad, it's really (*&%$ bad!"

But let's hit a few highlights:

Employment growth is negative
Manufacturing and construction jobs are down 5% and 10% respectively
New residential building permits are down 40% from last year
Unemployment is up
New migration to Portland is still positive
Condo inventory is over 15 months of supply
East Portland is doing better than all other Portland regions, with only 7.5 months of supply
The national homeowner vacancy rate has nearly doubled over the past few years

The presentations are interesting, but nothing really new or suprising for those following this blog.

Oh, and props to Clint for having his work poached for the presentation.

Thanks to Hallie for the link!

Money magazine predicts a 20% price drop for Portland

A reader sent this in, from Money magazine:


They are only predicting a 10% drop for Seattle, so it seems like they think that Portland was either more overvalued, or is facing some condition that will cause it to fall further (lack of jobs?).

I tend to agree with the 20% drop, that's about what I've been predicting. Any other thoughts? Should we start a pool?

Tracking the NAR's Spin and Lies

This chart is a brilliant view of the continued spin from the NAR, and how often it has been wrong. I understand the are trying to encourage people to buy and sell, but at some point if you are continually wrong you lose credibility. I know they lost my attention respect a long time ago.

It's ever funnier (or scarier) when you put this chart together with the recent news that Lawrence Yun (the NAR's cheif economist) was named as one of America's top economic forecasters.

And just so we're all on the same page, I'll believe we will have hit bottom when we see the sales decline plateau and start increasing, and inventory stop increasing. Prices will rise after that.

And don't forget, two data points is just a line. Three is a trend.