Portland area foreclosures skyrocket in H1 2009

(I believe the second and third headers are switched on the graphic above. The second column is the % of houses in foreclosure, the third column is the rate or 1/xx houses)

In what should be no surprise to anybody here, Portland foreclosures are up 112% in H1 2009 according to the latest Realty Trac data which was released yesterday:

Portland now ranks 60th out of 203 metro areas with 1.31% or 1 out of 76 of all households in some form of foreclosure, a bit higher than the national average of 1.19%.

Las Vegas NV leads the nation with 1 out of every 13 homes in some form of foreclosure.
Seattle is faring better than Portland, ranking 76th with .94% of households in foreclosure.
Salem OR is doing slightly better than Portland, ranking 64th with 1.18% in foreclosure, while the Eugene area is doing much better with only .80% in foreclosure and a ranking of 94th.

While California still holds a number of top spots in the rankings, the rate of foreclosure has declined in most areas. I predict that Portland will climb in the rankings before we fall since we're late to this party and facing higher unemployment than most areas.

Price recovery, or dead cat bounce? - May Case Shiller

The May 2009 Case Shiller data was released yesterday and May's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 16.3% from May 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was up 0.1% from April. Before everybody gets too giddy about the recovery just remember that this is likely just seasonality as prices also rose slightly in May 2008 before continuing to fall. If we see price increases for 3 months in a row then we can start talking about a recovery.

The median Portland home price is now down 21.2% from the peak in July 2007,

At this point if I would predict prices will continue to decline through 2009 and well into 2010.

A reader asked me recently why I focus so much on the price changes, rather than the actual changes. Because by focusing on the change, and the rate of change in prices you get an early indication into future prices. So while prices in other markets may still be declining, the change in price is also declining signaling a bottom to the declines.

HOW PORTLAND PRICES COMPARE TO OTHER MARKETS

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are still tracking each other very closely. Lase month Seattle saw a slight uptick in prices while Portland prices continued to decline. This month the trend reversed with Seattle prices continuing to slide and Portland prices rising slightly.

While the price declines for the overall market appears to have hit bottom, Portland and Seattle have slowed but not reversed. The price declines in the SF Bay Area also seem to have bottomed out and are now slowing. Prices have ticked up for the past few months but it remains to be seen if they will continue or slide again this winter.


The above chart is a recent addition. It shows how Portland is faring compared to other cities. Our maximum price decline is still below average, but as we all know Portland was late to this party, a party most homeowners didn't want an invitation to. As the average improves I predict Portland will be worse than average shortly

CURRENT PRICES VS HISTORIC AVERAGE

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation. But it's likely that we'll over correct before getting there.

FULL PORTLAND PRICE HISTORY


This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

This chart also shows the full available price history for Portland. I'm working to convert it to a log chart which will show the changes better.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Data presented in the Case Shiller spreadsheets are calculated monthly using a three-month moving average and published with a two month lag.

Portland among top 10 most walkable cities

From the Portland Business Journal:

"Portland is among the top 10 walkable cities in the nation, according to a Web site that measures walkability.

Walkscore.com ranked the largest 40 cities in the nation on a scale of zero to 100 based on how easy it is to live a “car-lite” lifestyle. Portland is number 10, with a walk score of 66.

Seven neighborhoods in Portland are Walkers’ Paradises, with walks scores of 90-100. Forty-five percent of Portland residents have a walk score of 70 or above. Eighty-three percent have a walk score of at least 50 — and 17 percent live in car-dependent neighborhoods."

This doesn't surprise me, as we specifically relocated to Portland because we like the walkability. But it's nice to see it acknowledged, and I've been a fan of walkscore.com since stumbling across them last year.

Portland Prices Continue to Slide in April - Case Shiller

The April Case Shiller data was released yesterday and April's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 16% from April 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was down 0.6% from March, much less than the 2.1% drop from February to March 2009. Don't take this as a sign that prices are stabilizing, this is just the typical spring "bounce" as flowers bloom and sellers get a little crazy.

The median Portland home price is now down 21.3% from the peak in July 2007, and prices continue to decline.

At this point if I would predict prices will continue to decline through 2009 and well into 2010.


The chart above shows the price index for the past five years. We are still looking at the same prices seen back in June 2005, almost 4 years ago

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are still tracking each other very closely, however in April Seattle saw a slight uptick in prices, while Portland prices continued to decline. This might reflect Oregon's record unemployment, or just a momentary anomaly. We'll have to wait and see if it turns into a trend.

While the price declines for the overall market appears to have hit bottom, Portland and Seattle price declines continue to set new records. The price declines in the SF Bay Area also seem to have bottomed out and are now slowing. Prices are still declining, just not as fast as in previous months.

February was the first month where the price decline didn't set a new record for the SF Bay Area and for the overall 20 city index. The 20 city index peaked in July 2006, while Portland peaked a year later in July 2007.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation. But it's likely that we'll over correct before getting there.

This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!


The above chart is a new addition. It shows how Portland is faring compared to other cities. Our maximum price decline is still below average, but as we all know Portland was late to this party, a party most homeowners didn't want an invitation to. I predict we will be worse than average shortly.

{Note, my apologies for the slow posting. Work has continued to keep me busy and I'd much rather be overworked right now than unemployed, but it has cut into my personal time}

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 15.3% in March - Case Shiller

The March Case Shiller data was released today and March's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 15.3% from March 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was down 2.1% from February, about the same as the 1.9% drop from January to February.

The median Portland home price is now down 20.8% from the peak in July 2007.


The chart above shows the price index for the past five years. I had to go beyond 3 years as we are now staring at the same prices seen back in June 2005, almost 4 years ago

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market.

While the price index continues to fall everywhere, the growth rate (or decline rate) for the 20-City index as well as for the San Francisco Bay Area markets appears to have reached an inflection point. We need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but it looks like there are signs of a bottom approaching for the Bay Area as well as the rest of the country.

February was the first month where the price decline didn't set a new record for the SF Bay Area and for the overall 20 city index.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink this month that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation. But it's likely that we'll over correct before getting there.

This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

What else would you guys like to see? Any predictions on when/where we'll see the price bottom?

{Note, my apologies for the gap in posting. My folks were in town, then my company decided to give me a huge project to work on. I'm not complaining, I'd much rather be overworked right now than unemployed, but it has cut into my personal time}

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 14.4% in February (updated with analysis) - Case Shiller

The February Case Shiller data was released yesterday and February's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 14.4% from February 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was slightly better this month, only down 1.9% from January as compared to the 3% drop from December to January.

The median Portland home price is now down 19.1% from the peak in July 2007.


The chart above shows the price index for the past three years. You can clearly see that prices have now dropped well past the prices seen 3 years ago, and have hit levels not seen since July 2005.

The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market.

While the price index continues to fall everywhere, the growth rate (or decline rate) for the 20-City index as well as for the San Francisco Bay Area markets appears to have reached an inflection point. We need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but it looks like there are signs of a bottom approaching for the Bay Area as well as the rest of the country.

February is the first month where the price decline didn't set a new record for the SF Bay Area and for the overall 20 city index.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink this month that represents an average of 5% growth starting in January 2001. You can see that the current price index is now below the 5% average growth line. An over-correction is to be expected, but we are also probably correcting to a more reasonable 3-4% long term growth rate, or about the rate of inflation.



This chart shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

What else would you guys like to see? Any predictions on when/where we'll see the price bottom?

Please feel free to distribute these charts as long as you leave the footer!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Existing Home Prices Fall 14% in January - Case Shiller

The January Case Shiller data was released this morning and January's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 14% from January 2008. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was even worse, down 3% from December, beating December's month over month 2.5% decline.

The median Portland home price is now down 17.5% from the peak in July 2007.



The chart above shows the price index for the past three years. You can clearly see that prices have now dropped to levels not seen since July 2005 and they continue to fall.


The above chart shows growth rates for Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market.

While the price index continues to fall everywhere, the growth rate (or decline rate) for the 20-City index as well as for the San Francisco Bay Area markets appears to have reached an inflection point. We need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but it looks like there are signs of a bottom approaching for the Bay Area as well as the entire country.


This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line in pink this month that represents Portland's average 6.6% growth starting in September 2000. You can see that the current price index is now well below the historic growth line which tells me that our historic growth rate is not sustainable, given that it's nearly double the rate of inflation. Others will try to use this data to show we've reached the bottom (or passed it) I'm sure.




This chart is more for historical curiosity than anything. It shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

How Well is Your Neighborhood Holding Up?

While most people here are interested in the monthly RMLS reports and Case Shiller data, what they really want to know is "how is my neighborhood holding up?"

To answer this question I was able to get a year over year view of median prices for the Portland market by RMLS neighborhood for January 2009, and the results are interesting. (click on the chart for a larger view)

[edit] Tom at Agent503 has year over year data for a few zip codes here.

A few highlights:

For the 4 inner Portland neighborhoods, NE Portland is holding up the best with median prices down 1.8% from Jan 09 vs Jan 08.

Columbia County is faring the worst, with median prices falling 26% in Jan 09.

If you're interested in a beach house, coastal prices are down 17.4%.

The overall Portland market is down 10.7% year over year.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the 'why's behind the differences.

Next up I'm going to look at why I belive the RMLS methodology for calculating growth rates is seriously flawed, and why you should ignore them - something I have mentioned repeatedly. I will also look at sales rates by neighborhood. Stay tuned!

Portland Existing Home Prices Drop 13.1% in December - Case Shiller

The December Case Shiller data was released this morning and November's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 13.1% year over year. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was even worse, down 2.5% from November, the largest drop we've seen to date. Or ever.

Portland is now down 15% from the peak in July 2007.



The chart above shows the price index for the past three years. You can clearly see that prices have now dropped beyond 2005 levels and continue to fall. Pop.


The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The 20 city index started to flatten out a few months ago and it looks like the San Francisco Bay area has also started to slow down. We'll need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but maybe prices have dropped enough for the scavengers to snap up foreclosures and prop up prices.

For comparison, the San Francisco market is down 30.8% in November, but was down 31.1.% in October. It looks like things might be stabilizing a bit down there.

Seattle also saw a massive drop in November, dropping 2.5% from October, and down 11.2% from last year.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line inpink this month that represents Portland's average 6.6% growth starting in September 2000. You can see that the current price index is now well below the historic growth line which tells me that our historic growth rate is not sustainable, given that it's nearly double the rate of inflation. Others will try to use this data to show we've reached the bottom (or passed it) I'm sure.




This chart is more for historical curiosity than anything. It shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Portland Home Prices Drop 11.5% in November

The November Case Shiller data was released this morning and November's median price for an existing home in Portland was down 11.5% year over year. (click on any chart to expand it to readable size)

The monthly change was even worse, down 2.3% from October, the largest drop we've seen to date. Or ever.

While the other markets seem to be stabilizing Portland prices seems to be accelerating in the wrong direction. Recent news of layoffs at OHSU, Intel and others certainly won't help the picture either, adding another layer to the cake of misery which includes increasing foreclosures, lack or credit, and ARM mortgages resetting.


The chart above shows the price index for the past three years. You can clearly see that prices have now dropped to 2005 levels and continue to fall. Pop.

The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other very closely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The 20 city index started to flatten out a few months ago and it looks like the San Francisco Bay area has also started to slow down. We'll need a few more months of data before calling it a trend, but maybe prices have dropped enough for the scavengers to snap up foreclosures and prop up prices.

For comparison, the San Francisco market is down 30.8% in November, but was down 31.1.% in October. It looks like things might be stabilizing a bit down there.

Seattle also saw a massive drop in November, dropping 2.5% from October, and down 11.2% from last year.

This chart shows the price index for the past 8 years. I also added a line (the light grey line) that represents 5% growth starting in September 2000. You can see that the current price index is still above the 5% growth line, indicating that we have a ways to go before prices fall back in line with historic averages.

Proving once again that the only constant with forecasts is the ability to be wrong, just 2 months ago I predicted that prices wouldn't be back to historic norms until late 2009. It now looks like we'll be back at the historic trend line by April 2009. I doubt things will stabilize there however, as the recession just seems to be picking up steam at this point. If we assume Portland will react like the rest of the market we're looking at price declines throughout 2009. However as the NAR likes to remind us all real estate is local, so if our economy is doing worse than the rest of the nation look for prices to continue to fall into 2010.



This chart is more for historical curiosity than anything. It shows the previous bubble in the early 90's, and also shows that Portland prices had never dropped over the past 20 years, until 2008. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance!

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices measures the residential housing market, tracking changes in the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States. These indices use the repeat sales pricing technique to measure housing markets. First developed by Karl Case and Robert Shiller, this methodology collects data on single-family home re-sales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. This index family consists of 20 regional indices and two composite indices as aggregates of the regions.

Double Check Those School Districts

I've seen a lot of listings with mislabeled school districts. This can obviously affect the price of a house considerably, and lead to major disappointment if you're looking for a specific school.

Before you get serious about any property you're looking at (at least in Portland) run the address through the Portland School District website (here) to confirm where it sits today.

I know the boundaries have changed considerably recently and will likely continue to change, but frankly I wouldn't trust anything in the listings as they seem to be wrong more than right in my experience.

The post below is a classic example. I can't prove it was mislabeled incorrectly on purpose, but it wouldn't surprise me as Grant is ranked higher than Jefferson in recent school ratings.

I have also added a link to the Buyer's Resources to the right for future reference.