First time home buyer credit extended and expanded

Late last week President Obama signed an extension of the $8,000 first time home buyer credit.

From the Redfin blog:

"...President Obama signed new legislation extending the deadline for the home buyer tax credit into 2010 and expanding it to include current home owners who are looking to buy a primary residence.

The Basic Requirements

You qualify for the tax credit if the:

• Home you’re buying will be your primary residence
• Purchase price isn’t more than $800,000

This credit is not a loan; it’s yours, but keep in mind you have to live in your new home for three years. If you sell the home in less than three years, you’ll have to pay back the money.

What’s Changed?

With the new legislation, buyers have more time to find a home and more buyers are eligible for the tax credit:

• New deadline: To qualify, you need to be in contract with a seller by April 30th & close on the home by June 30th (The previous deadline was November 30, 2009).
• Not just for first-time buyers anymore: Home buyers who’ve owned and occupied a home for at least five consecutive years during the past eight years are eligible for a credit up to $6,500.
• Increased income limits: Individuals making less than $125,000 and couples making less than $225,000 are eligible (The limits used to be $75K & $150K).

First-time buyers are eligible for a credit up to $8,000 on homes purchased between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. Qualified homeowners can a credit up to $6,500 on homes purchased between November 7, 2009 and June 30, 2010."

This should help keep sales moving through the winter. But the question is how long will they keep propping up the market before letting it return to "normal".

Portland Exisitng Home Prices Fall 5.8% in June - Case Shiller

We're taking a break from a great discussion on renting vs. buying today to highlight the latest Case Shiller data.

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 5.8% year over year in June 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.2% from the peak in July 2007.

The slight month over month gains we saw in April and May have now reversed, and the price index is down 0.3% from May.


The chart above clearly shows that 1. there was a bubble in Portland, and 2. it is now deflating. The chart and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring.

We've also seen the rate of decline slow a bit as peak buying season is in effect, but look for the decline to accelerate later in the year.

I predict we'll be down at least 10% year over year by the end of December. Any other predictions?

The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price the past two months which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.
The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area (the other areas I consider as closest to Portland) as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.

The above chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized through the summer buying season.

I've added one more chart, which shows the price changes for the past 20 years. We saw one previous bubble around 1990, and then the more recent bubble. Prices have not been negative in Portland since they started tracking the market until just recently.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

Portland Existing Home Prices Continue to Slide in April

The Case Shiller home price index was released today, and Portland's median price continued to slide in April, dropping 4.7% from April 2007.

The median price was actually up 0.3% from March to April due to seasonality and the peak buying season kicking in.

The 20 city composite dropped 15.3% in April.

Seattle fell 4.9%, keeping track with Portland.

San Francisco is down 22.1% and Phoenix is down 25% year over year.

Full charts and report later today

Portland Home Prices Continue Falling - Case Shiller

The median price of existing homes in Portland declined 2.0% from February 2007 to February 2008 according to the S&P / Case Shiller Home Price Index, continuing the trend that started in April 2006 when price growth peaked, and increasing the decline that started in January. The median price declined 1.4% from January. None of this is surprising given the record high inventory levels, 40% drop in sales, and tightening of the credit markets.

The chart also shows what looks to be a small plateau at the end of last year. This is likely due to the seasonally slow months, and seller holding out for better pricing in the spring. When that didn't materialize buyer's relented and dropped their price.

The median price of existing homes in Portland is now lower than it was in June 2006, wiping out over a year and a half of appreciation.

This chart shows the median price over the past three years, making it easier to see the comparison to April 2006.

Nationally, the 20 city index declined 12.7% in February and shows no signs of slowing. While prices in other regions around the nation are well on the way towards correcting (see the recent National City report), Portland is just beginning its correction.

My advice for sellers? Look at where similar houses were selling in the Spring of 2006 (not 2007) and price 5-10% below that, or else you risk following the market down even further.

My advice for buyers? Look at where prices were in the Spring of 2006, and offer 5-10% below that. Or just wait, those prices will be here soon enough.

ABOUT CASE SHILLER:
The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.