Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Portland median prices continue to fall

The latest Case Shiller data for December 2007 was released today. The median Portland home price fell 0.6% from November to December, from 183.65 to 182.47.

Year over year growth slowed slightly from 1.3% to 1.2%, but is surprisingly still positive.Don't forget that this data is backwards looking, and almost two months old at this point. Given today's economic indicators I expect things will continue to get worse.

On the bright side I do believe that Portland is weathering the storm for a few reasons.

1. The urban growth boundary prevents the overbuilding that other cities have seen.
2. We have a lower than average foreclosure rate than other areas, but we are certainly not immune from risky, 100% financing.

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kevbo said...

When coupled with a 12+ month inventory of homes on the market, falling median prices should be opening some eyes that don't want to be opened. Portland has historically run a year or two behind national trends. This is just now making a big impact in real estate here. With a big portion of Oregon's economy driven by the lumber industry, the national slowdown in housing starts is not a good indicator for the state's economy.

Toss in the new listings to come onto the market this spring, and one begins to wonder where the bottom will be. Real estate is cyclical. Always has been and always will. Had the few good years of appreciation and now it's time for a few years of decline.

skeptictank said...

Speaking of inventory, it's already 33% higher than it was last year at this time. Check out the inventory graph here:

Inventory levels now are slightly above the highpoint of inventory in 2006... and that was in October 2006. The train wreck has finally arrived in PDX.

PDXOutsider said...

according to housingtracker.net median asking (listing) prices are also down 7% year over year and down 8.4% from the peak, which is a sign that maybe buyers are starting to figure out the bubble has a leak.

PDXOutsider said...

forgot to mention, you combine the 33% increase in inventory (# of houses for sale) with the 30% decrease in sales, and you get the more than 100% increase in months of inventory that i posted about a few days ago.

Patient Renter said...

If August 07 was the median "peak" I expect August 08 will bring YOY declines. That's over 2 years behind parts of California in terms of price declines.

So relative to price declines, compared to other parts of the country, the forclosure situation in Oregon is already shaping up quite bad (which will spur further declines, etc.)

se_renter said...

Apparently PDX has a hig rate of neg-am loans. One we are firmly in negative territory I think we will see a tsunami of foreclosures. The liberal "creatives" in this town will not feel ashamed of sticking it to the man.