The March RMLS data was released this week, and there doesn't seem to be much sign of a recovery just yet.
Ignore the mainstream media comments about sales being up. They always rise in the spring, the real measure is of course how they compare to last year. And in that comparison things are bad. Even the RMLS was unusually stoic stating:
"Portland metro area market activity continued to grow over last month, but fell short of reaching March 2008 levels."
There were 1184 closed sales in March 2009, down 30% from March 2008.
Sales were up 28% from February 2009, but they were up 22% from Feb to March 2008, and I'm sure they were up a similar amount in 2007.
A couple other highlights:
The March 2009 median price was $246,400, down 14% from $286,500 in March 2008.
3685 new properties were listed in March 2009, down 28.5% from March 2008. This is the one bright spot, as new listings fell to their lowest level in 10 years, signaling that the glut of inventory might eventually start clearing up.
Total inventory dropped 8%, from 15,388 to 14,208 in March 2009. This also signals that the bottom might be coming, as inventories shrink prices will eventually stabilize.
Unfortunately prices are still dropping like a rock with no sign of letting up, which is all most folks really care about. And given our 12%+ unemployment rate I don't see things getting better anytime soon.
5 comments:
Unfortunately prices are still dropping like a rock with no sign of letting up, which is all most folks really care about. And given our 12%+ unemployment rate I don't see things getting better anytime soon.If you mean that the drop in housing prices itself is unfortunate, I would disagree. The prices have been unsustainable, unaffordable to most Portlanders, out of line with well-established historic norms -- clearly a bubble. Why should we lament it any more than, say, the collapse in oil prices, with that event's many winners and losers?
I'd say the entire parabolic unstable period in the housing market has been unfortunate. Many people were hurt in both the increasing and decreasing ends of the cycle, and both the inflation and the deflation together were necessary to help cause to the wider economic meltdown.
What I meant was "unfortunately for homeowners who are watching their paper gains vanish"
I'm all for bringing the market back to where it's sustainable and healthy, and I believe that letting houses go into foreclosure and letting the market sort it out is the best way to do it. I've said that before.
OK, I see what you meant.
Now I can say that home prices during March this year fell just because of the housing bubble in US, which ultimately gripped the entire world later on.
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