Thursday, December 4, 2008

Home Builder Association Annual Forecast Today!

The Home Builders Association or Metro Portland is holding its annual forecast meeting today.

I assume the intended audience is home builders and those in the trade, but the comment on the last slide of this presentation that we've hit bottom is interesting, especially as the next comment is that "pricing may still erode".

For those that are in the market for an existing, or new home, this really means that the market has not bottomed for sellers or buyers, but rather it can't get much worse for builders, as we're at a 20+ year low this month for new housing starts.

Lots of interesting data in the presentations, although without the commentary it's hard to know what they're trying to show in each slide. Other than "it's bad, it's really (*&%$ bad!"

But let's hit a few highlights:

Employment growth is negative
Manufacturing and construction jobs are down 5% and 10% respectively
New residential building permits are down 40% from last year
Unemployment is up
New migration to Portland is still positive
Condo inventory is over 15 months of supply
East Portland is doing better than all other Portland regions, with only 7.5 months of supply
The national homeowner vacancy rate has nearly doubled over the past few years

The presentations are interesting, but nothing really new or suprising for those following this blog.

Oh, and props to Clint for having his work poached for the presentation.

Thanks to Hallie for the link!


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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Did you see the article in the Oregonian about the Housing Forecast? http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf?/base/business/1228364720185510.xml&coll=7

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