Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The Next Wave is About to Crash

60 Minutes recently ran a piece about the next wave of loans that will soon go bad. The orange peak to the left above above are the subprime mortages that have reset recently and forced many into bankruptcy.

The greenish peak to the right are the Alt-A and Option loans that are starting to reset.

Portland has a number of these loans, which were used to buy all sorts of property, including high end property. These aren't buyer's with bad credit, but rather buyer's who bought more house that they could afford assuming they could refinance into 30 year fixed loans once their home value appreciated another 20% in a year.

Some of these loans had options that didn't pay off any of the principle, these are now starting to reset as they typically contain a clause (that most didn't read) that says that the principle must be paid down when it reached 110% of the original amount.

Other loans had low teaser rates (as low as 3% for some) that are now resetting to 6% or higher, doubling the payment.

I remember a Portland couple was featured in Money magazine last year. They had just bought a 700k house, on about $100k income, using one of these loans. (If they had used a conventional 30 year fixed at 6% their PITI would be about $3700 a month, or 44% of monthly income for someone earning $100k a year. So no they really can't afford this house) One of them was staying home to raise their child, the other worked. They had planned to refinance once the value went up, I assume now that they will be defaulting, or the second person will be going back to work soon.

It's only going to get worse here folks, and according to the recent RMLS data it is already getting worse quickly.

Click here to watch the full piece.

Thanks to Greg for the tip.

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Anonymous said...

Suspension of disbelief has run rampant this last year. Many Portlanders seem to assume that all men are islands and they have escaped the failings of high finance. The term affordability is an interesting term in the midst of this financial downturn. It seems that affordability was once attributed to those of low income status. That definition has been tweaked by the middle class buyer who wants the McMansion or the illusion of "I've finally made it." It is this psychology that has and will be difficult for many to adjust.

BB said...

The "homeowner" badge won't be quite as swanky as it used to be in these parts in a couple of years.

Fact is, BANKS own the vast majority of homes in PDX as well as the nation, and therein lies the problem.

Yes. "Affordability" and "Illusion" are two key phrases that the housing market in PDX and the nation will be coming to grips with in the not too distant future.

The psychology of the situation will be abruptly smacked upside the head by the invisible hand of the all powerful market.

Median home prices have done what they've done, yet median incomes have remained FLAT for roughly 8 years. The math doesn't work.

Hang's going to be a rough ride in real estate for the next 5-10 years.

Unless one has no debt.

Debt = rip your face off losses in a deflationary spiral. And if our many "activist" folks in PDX really want to fight the system, save the planet, and realize "change" and "hope" that's above what their dog rolls in - they'd swear off debt and show the banks who's boss.

The banks run this country. Not the Dems OR Reps. It's that simple.

Sad. But simple.

Want to take the country back and put it in the hands of the people? Live debt free, transact with cash, and never pay interest.

F&*$ the banks.