Monday, March 3, 2008

Portland Median House Prices Finally Drop as Sales Plunge 42%

A friend of the blog recently sent some preliminary February data:

1) Feb 2008 saw only 1,208 sales, down 42% from 2,087 in Feb 2007, but up from 1,084 in Jan 2008.

2) I would expect median prices to stay roughly the same in Feb 2008. My preliminary number is $276,600, slightly down from $280,000 in Jan 2008. However, looking back to Feb 2007, this would be the first period of Portland's downturn demonstrating negative year-over-year appreciation (Median $278,000 in Feb 07)

3) Given a conservative final sale pace range for Feb of 1,250 to 1,350 sales, look for inventory to fall slightly, A range of 10.6 months to 11.4 months"

A 42% drop would easily trump last months 32% drop, but given that the few last sales have yet to be recorded we'll probably end up closer to a 35% drop.

It also looks like we're headed into negative territory, finally. I'm tired of explaining to people that no, the Portland market is not still appreciating. We might finally have the data to show it on a year over year basis.

Again this is preliminary data, but it doesn't look like the spring bounce has started to materialize just yet, even with the fantastic weather we had in February.

Add to Technorati Favorites

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

What position are you in that you're constantly explaining to people that the market isn't still appreciating?

MiTurn said...

I remember reading for months, when the national real estate implode began, how many 'authorities' were constantly harping that the Portland and Seattle markets were somehow 'different' and perhaps immune to the downturns impacting the rest of the nation. No, just late to the party.

PDXOutsider said...

"What position are you in that you're constantly explaining to people that the market isn't still appreciating?"

I'm a potential buyer, and the people I'm explaining this to are either real estate agents and/or sellers who haven't figured it out, or friends and family who have heard through the media that "Portland and Seattle are doing fine".

elneal said...

So what does this mean? I suppose I should continue to hold for the next 6 months then base my to-buy-plan on that future market........
For now it's back to renting- u know of any good sites (besides craigslists, portlandrentals) to find a reasonable rental?

skeptictank said...

And this with an extra day in February this year...

Anonymous said...

elneal - if you're looking for an apartment complex, check out apartmentratings.com. It and Rent.com also offer cash cards if you end up renting a property you saw through them. As for houses, condos, etc. private rentals, probably no better resource than Craigslist. Much messier to deal with though.

bearlee said...

Speaking of renting...I think a lot of folks will be renting out rooms, if not entire floors of their homes to help w/ the mortgage. I hope this is a more likely option for folks than the almost too popular jingle mail method.

Why not just refi? Not when you owe more than it's worth or even if you owe more than 80% because then you will get nailed w/ PMI.

It's gonna get ugly folks.

PDXOutsider said...

"So what does this mean? I suppose I should continue to hold for the next 6 months then base my to-buy-plan on that future market........"

i'm sure there will be more good deals out there noce sellers realize the market has turned. i'm not saying you should wait, just that you should definitely ask for a discount.

"For now it's back to renting- u know of any good sites (besides craigslists, portlandrentals) to find a reasonable rental?"

we used a realtor, but then we were new to town and needed a little guidance.

craigslist rules for small houses and apts, and you might also look up property management companies and call them directly.

don't forget word of mouth, the best places probably never see the light of craigslist.

maybe i should start a rental forum! the demand sounds like it might be there.

Jamie said...

It seems like, if this is the beginning of the turn, that waiting could be an excellent strategy.

Or, start making offers that are 30-40% less than what sellers are listing for. You might not end up there, but it will flush out a good deal or two.

Anonymous said...

Just found your blog.
You need to strike a partnership with piggington.com.

Anyway, any updates to the Portland RE markets?

PDX Outsider said...

ANon June 13, are you in San Diego, or Portland?

Thanks for the tip, I'll go check out piggington.com

The latest RMLS figures just came out, and I will get them up this weekend. Prices are down 3% from last year, inventory is still sky high, foreclosures are up, etc. It's still scary out there and will get worse before it gets better.