Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Portland Median Existing Home Prices Slip Again - Down 6.6% YoY (Case Shiller)

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 6.6% year over year in July 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.6% from the peak in July 2007. The month over month declines are also accelerating, as the index dropped 0.5% from June to July 08, vs. 0.3% from May to June.

I'll post the charts later today.

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Anonymous said...

And in California, that number is a 41% drop in prices year on year.

Yes, that's right. 41%

Anybody care to compare when Cali peaked in prices vs the NW peaking in prices?

This is just the beginning, and yes folks it WILL happen here. No. It's really not "different here".

Same pushy real estate "pros", same crooked appraisers, same shady lending tactics, same inflated bubble prices, same herd mentality among buyers who bought homes they could not afford. Just late to the party, and late to pop.

But pop it will.

Paul Riddell said...

I have a serious question, for which I'm getting incomplete answers from others. Considering the number of people who took out HELOC loans on their houses in order to prop up failing small businesses, has the home price decline shown any comparable increase in business failures? Or, if I'm asking the wrong question, how would you track such a correlation?

Anonymous said...

I decided to see for myself if this was a good time to buy property in Portland investigating condos and lofts and making bids for a few condo properties that had been on the market for a while.

I found something remarkable. The sum of condo Home Owner Association (HOA) fees and state property taxes EXCEEDED the rent of an equivalent quality rental property's total rent!

As long as you can rent an equivalent place for a sum that is less than the sum of HOA fees and property taxes, it makes little sense to buy. After those two (HOA/Taxes and Rent) cancel each other out you are left with a simple mortgage interest rate versus home price appreciation comparison. That comparison is simple: Will home prices appreciate on average the rate of your mortgage over the mortgage term ? Who thinks home prices will increase 6% on average each year, over the next 20-30 years?

Prices still have at least another 10-20% on the downside. Do the math... It's easy!