Thursday, July 9, 2009

1 out of 5 Portland homes for sale is a foreclosure

I caught this article by Ryan Frank when I was catching up on his blog recently:

"1. 18% of PDX listings foreclosure, short sale: I had someone run the numbers yesterday and they're not pretty. The Portland region in RMLS has 14,328 active listings. Of those, 641 are forecloses that have been taken back by the bank. Another 2,297 are listed as requiring a third party approval. Most of those are short sales. But being conservative, say 2,000 of those are short sales. That leaves 2,641 foreclosures or short sales on the market, or nearly one of every five listings"

I'd love to track this statistic as I belive it's a real window into the health of our market. I know California is in worse shape, but I'd like to know if we're seeing more or fewer foreclosures and short sales these days.

Any disgruntled real estate agents want to share their RMLS data for a little fun with numbers? I don't expect to see this from the RMLS anytime soon.

EDIT - I didn't need to get the raw data, Ron Ares ran the same basic report I was thinking of. You can find it on his site here.

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Ron Ares said...

I took it a little bit further by breaking distress sales into short sale vs. bank-owned by market areas. Beaverton, Gresham, and Happy Valley are the hardest hit.

Anonymous said...

lake oswego and west linn are inching up to 300 distressed properties (each). Our realtor keeps telling us we have hit bottom. I think this winter is going to be a blood bath. Homes are selling quickly in the low 400 to high 300 range. I think that is due to time of the year and the 8000 tax credit for first time buyers.

PDX Outsider said...

Anon 1:30, are you actively in the market?

Of course they are going to call bottom, they know everybody is waiting for it. It's not here yet by my calculations but I agree that the $8k credit will spur many to buy.

PDX Outsider said...

Great analysis Ron, thanks for sharing that!

Leigh said...

Heck, even if we are at the bottom what is going to cause prices to go up from here? What is going to give buyers the confidence they need to buy? How many of us are uncertain about our own jobs?

Sit and wait. There will be many more houses to choose from. Wait for the one that nearly perfectly fits your wants and needs if you are financial stable.

As for the houses that are quickly selling in LO and WL, what do you think they would have sold for 2 years ago? Are folks getting a 'deal'?

Even with an $8K tax credit, a $350K mortgage is pretty steep w/out a hefty down payment.

$350K at 6% is $2098/month NOT including taxes and insurance and utilities. So are these move up buyers?

How about PMI? My nephew recently bought in Colorado using an FHA and he had to come up w/ PMI up front though I need to ask how much for the $130K condo he just mortgaged. He was told he might a rebate once he had 20% equity in the place. Anyone got 1st hand info on what's going on in the PMI world given all the defaults?


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