Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Portland Existing Home Prices Continue to Slide in April - Case Shiller

The median price of existing homes in the metro Portland area fell 4.7% year over year in April 2008 according to Case Shiller, continuing the trend that began in July 2007. This is down 6.2% from the peak in July 2007.

The chart above clearly shows the bubble deflating, and also shows a bit of a plateau over the winter as sales slowed and seller's held out that prices would rebound in the spring.

The chart above shows the price index over the past few years. You can see a slight increase in the median price this month (April 2008) which corresponds with the seasonality seen in previous years.
The above chart shows Portland, Seattle, the San Francisco bay area, as well as the 20-city composite index. Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market. The San Francisco area has really fallen off the cliff and continues to plummet.

The final chart shows the price index over the past 8 years. Prices have now fallen back to the May 2006 level, but look to have stabilized temporarily. Unfortunately 2 points don't make a trend, so we'll have to wait and see if prices hold through the summer.

The Case Shiller data focuses on the change in price of existing homes, and tries to exclude the effects of remodeling, or major damage. It tries to exclude investment properties and foreclosures (which would make the data look worse) as well as transfers between family members. It's a much better indicator of how the price of the average or typical house has changed from year to year. For full details on their methodology see their factsheet.

1 comment:

GAT Mac said...

"Portland and Seattle are tracking each other nicely, still about a year behind the rest of the market."

I would like to point out this is a theory, not a fact. There is no evidence the Portland market will (or will not) continue falling until a year after the stabilization of the broader market.